This is in continuation of my last blog post No. 875 dated 11th January 2017, made at my blog http://problemsoftelugus.blogspot.com/search/label/875. Click here if you wish to read it.. At a time, when the whole world seems to have lost hopes on Communism/Marxism/Socialism, Mr. Bernie Sanders in United States, and Mr. Jeremy Corbyn in United Kingdom have raised some hopes. Wealthy Investors and Business Persons in U.K., according to the following Report, seem to get frightened by the prospects of Mr. Jeremy Corbyn rising to be the Prime Minister of U.k. Link to the Spectator's Article Click here to go to https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/money-is-already-draining-from-britain-but-because-of-corbyn-not-brexit/ which contains a Readworthy Report about the situation in U.K. As the Report is very thought-provoking, I have made a sentence by sentence Review of it. Of course, I may not be a match for Ross Clark or the Spectator. I am too small a fry. Yet, as Great Telugu Poet Late Shri Shri said, I am trying to think aloud.
What Telugu Poet Late ShriShri said:--
nEnu saitamu prapanchAgniki
samidha nokkaTi AhuticcAnu
nEnu saitam viSva vrushTiki
aSRuvokkaTi dhaaravOsaanu
nEnu saitam bhuvana GhOshaku
verri gontuka picchi mosaanuu
Approximate English Translation: I too have contributed a firewood-stick to the Great-Fire of this World. I too have, contributed a drop of my tear to the Universal Showers of Rain. I too have added my insane voice to the Great Sound of Music of this Universe.
Quote from Article | comments of ybrao a donkey, not intended to be imposed on others |
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Review of Article by Ross Clark at Spectator.co.uk. | Link: Click here to go to https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/money-is-already-draining-from-britain-but-because-of-corbyn-not-brexit/ |
Money is already draining from Britain, but because of Corbyn, not Brexit. Markets are spooked at the prospects of Corbyn as PM. | UK runs around 15 Tax Haven Shelters such as Island of Man, Caveman Islands, British Virgin Islands. Even if there is a flight of Capital, it may move from Mainland UK to its dependent/protected Tax Havens. Hence why get frightened? |
What’s wrong with UK financial markets? The global economy is recovering, but British stocks and shares are not keeping pace. | UK while earning Easy money through Golden Visas, and Tax Havens, seems to have forgotten about Export Promotion. After the advent of High Profile Services Sector, Manufacturing Sector has been forced to take a back seat. This results in loss of Export capabilities. |
The pound has failed to recover from the slide it experienced in the wake of the EU referendum. | This is the consequence of neglecting Export Promotion. |
This is frequently blamed on investors being spooked by Brexit, even more so by the possibility of a no deal. But has anyone actually asked the markets what is spooking them? | Brexit may be one of the factors which are frightening Investors. |
Look closer and it becomes clear that while Brexit is a problem for some investors, most are much more worried about a far bigger risk, even if they rarely speak about it in public. It is the possibility of a Corbyn government. | Tax Collection based Welfare Economics is a part of bourgeoisie Economics. Labor Parties, world over, though may show some militancies, they cannot and will not go too far. Hence Investors in Britain and into Britain, need not worry about Corbyn and his Party. |
Since last year’s election, when the Labour leader came within a stone’s throw of No. 10, it has been impossible to write off the idea of a Corbyn victory. And we’re about to enter a time when anything can happen. | Fierece militants like Lenin and Stalin, Mao Ze Dong could not root out Capitalist and Investment culture. Ultimately, the Clock had to be turned back in Russia and China. Democratic Corbyn can only be too mild, when compared to failed Dictatorial Socialist Stalwarts. |
Theresa May looks doomed to lose the Commons vote on her Brexit deal on 11 December; the DUP has said it may well withdraw its support from the Tories, leaving the Prime Minister without a majority. | Britain will not change, even if Theresa May loses, or Conservatives lose, or Corbyn and his Labor Party wins. |
Whatever the Commons result, turmoil is more or less guaranteed — and one possible outcome is a general election as early as January. | Whether there is any General Election in January 2019 or not, all the frightening waves will only be trifles, and disappear as Storm in a Teap cup, in due course. |
A no-deal Brexit would unquestionably cause short-term ructions in the UK economy, as well as affect the pound and the FTSE — for what economic forecasts are worth (which is not very much, to judge by recent history). | Whatever be the ructions, UK can neither recoup back to its past glory, nor lose much in spite of Brexit. |
Oxford Economics recently claimed that GDP would be 2 per cent smaller than expected, pushing the UK into a mild recession. | GDP figures calculated / disclosed World Over need not be much reliable. UK is already in deep recession, and not in mild recession. And that recession is not due to Brexit or No-Brexit, but owing to its Structural Economic Disequilibrium(s). |
But even if that were to happen (and it has to be remembered just how far Treasury forecasts were out when they claimed the economy would shrink by 3.6 and 6 per cent in the event of a Brexit vote), growth would then rekindle, trade would continue, companies would re-route imports and exports, and an inflationary spike would die down. | Some occasional minor increases and decreases will always be there,as can be natural to most Economies of the World. |
But if Corbyn were to be elected on a `radical socialist’ platform, investors can only guess as to what might happen. | Radical Socialist Platform need not actually trigger Radical Reforms. |
Last month, wealth manager Saunderson House conducted a survey of high-net-worth clients asking them about the biggest fear for their wealth. | High net worth Clients will always be apprehensive of New Governments and New Leaders, because they have to satisfy the New Governments and New Leaders, for smooth growth of their Wealth. These fears can be called Bribing fears. |
The most common concern was a change of government, with 42 per cent reporting themselves worried. Brexit hardly featured. | Capitalists have their own Pressure Groups. They can collect donations and subscriptions to prevent election of Corbyn and his Labor Party. |
Among 50- to 64-year-olds, for example, only 25 per cent were worried about `global instability’ —which included the risk of a no deal. | Investor behaviors may not depend much on ages of Investors. |
Among 36- to 49-year-olds, global instability hardly featured at all: they were worried firstly about losing their jobs, with a change in government running a close second. | Instability of Jobs, and cyclic turmoils is a characteristic feature of Capitalist Business Culture. The 36 to 49 Olds, will have only two choices. Support True total socialism, and live happily sharing joys of pooled prosperities and poverties. |
`There is a clear understanding of the upsides and downsides of Brexit,’ says Gareth Parsons, who conducted the survey. `But a Corbyn government is a much greater unknown, and so is a much bigger fear than Brexit. | Corbyn need not be taken as a tiger hiding in a bush. Of course, he may not be a goat wearing a tiger skin, or a real ferocious tiger. He may only act as a mild tiger. |
We have clients who are laying down a footing for a potential move abroad. They are setting up bank accounts in overseas locations, where they already have second homes. Many are keeping a defensive ballast to their portfolios, with very liquid short-dated corporate bonds.’ | There may also be another underlying motive in the actions of apparently-frightened, but not adequately frightened investors. They may following a principle of `Why keep all eggs in one basket?`. |
It is a theme which has been confirmed by others. Michael Maslinski, who runs his own wealth management outfit, recently reported that Corbyn is worrying his clients more than Brexit by a factor of ten. | Dirt Wealth-wallahs also consult astrologers and soothsayers. |
`Concerns about Corbyn have doubled over the past couple of weeks,’ says Iain Tait, of wealth managers London. | May be hallucinations and nightmares. |
Capital. `It is now, without a doubt, the first thing that clients ask us: `What can we do to protect our wealth against Corbyn?” ’ Clients, he says, are taking money out of pension schemes, and moving it abroad. `There is no tax advantage to that while they remain resident in Britain, but it does protect them against a possible run on the pound.’ | Better to protect their personal health(s) rather than protecting wealth(s). |
The figures bear this out. A recent study by an investment research firm suggested that $20 billion has been taken out of UK shares over the past two years. | Apart from Brexit and Corbyn, there may be other reasons. |
Wealthy individuals are also protecting themselves against a possible future wealth tax by passing money down to their children at an earlier age. | Good strategic planning. They may be following Peter Drucker's precepts in his Book Tasks, Responsibilities, Practices. |
In that sense, Corbyn — who has made a thing about inter-generational unfairness — has already achieved his ambition of enriching one group of young people: the teenage children of the super-rich. | Wealth Tax cannot be a substitute for Removal of Right of Private Property. If Corbyn has courage, and if he gets some leeway/freedom he should go for the Real Reform of True Socialism. |
Some wealthy individuals are not waiting for an election. Two of Tait’s clients have already upped and gone, one to Switzerland, one to Sweden. | Why Switzerland? Most European countries are Collectors of Dirt from other countries. |
`Early in my career it would have been unthinkable for anyone to move to Sweden for tax reasons,’ he says. | Medieval Europeans were Slave Traders. Later they built their wealth by Exploiting colonies. Why Sweden? They will even go to South Pole,if there is going to be moolah, to dig up. |
What Sweden does offer, on the other hand, is the political and fiscal stability that was once Britain’s strongest selling point. | Even now, Britain's political and fiscal stability need not be alarming. Britain can recoup back, if sincere efforts are made in right direction, whether under Corbyn or under May. |
Trevor Abrahmsohn, whose estate agency Glentree Estates has been selling property in and around Highgate in north London since the 1970s, has seen several families sell up in recent months — all people, he says, who had seemed deeply committed to Britain. | There is substantial difference between Migration of Labor,and Migration of Investors. Poor people who migrate for livelihood, they rarely go back, unless the going in the new country leads them to greater penury. On the other hand, Migrating Investors will be like crows on a tree. They can never be counted nor relied upon. |
`I know an Argentinian family who had bought a home in Maida Vale, as well as office space, to set up a restaurant and property businesses,’ he says. `They have sold everything and moved back to Argentina. | There may be other contributory equally strong reasons. |
There was an American family who had been in Kensington for 20 years who have done the same, plus a couple of American families in Maida Vale.’ | I do not think, Corbyn is frightening them. |
Corbyn wasn’t the only factor in their decision to leave, he says. They were also motivated by changes to the tax rules, which require non-doms to pay a flat-rate fee of £60,000 per individual to secure that tax status — a fee not recognised by US tax authorities when enacting rules on dual taxation. | Investor Inviting Governments may have to maintain consistency. Unforseen sudden changes may demotivate investors. |
`But it was the threat of Corbyn which pushed them over the edge,’ he adds. | If Corby has a real Potential to become a nightmare for Capitalists, then I greatly appreciate him. But, I believe like Lenin and Mao Ze Dong, he will have to fade away. |
`I have been in business for 43 years and I’ve never seen such tangible fear. | Seems to be a panicky knee-jerk reaction. |
There is an old adage in property that hardened investors never sell. But they are selling now. | Hardened Investors will never sell--is correct. If somebody is selling, owing to some misperceptions of impending doom, they have to wait longer time to learn from their mistakes, and become Hardened Investors. every Larva or Pupa may not become a butterfly. |
People are getting rid of whole portfolios and putting their money into very portable forms of wealth such as diamonds, valuable coins and jewellery.’ There was little in Labour’s 2017 election manifesto which would appear at first to justify such a reaction. The document proposed an income tax rate of 45 per cent on the 5 per cent of taxpayers who earn more than £80,000 and a 50 per cent tax rate on incomes over £123,000. | They can also make some arbitrage profits from every operation of theirs. |
That is nothing compared with the 83 per cent rate on earned income and 98 per cent rate on unearned income which were imposed by the Callaghan government in the late 1970s. | Callaghan Government of 1970s (and 2019 Govt. of Corbyn if it gets elected) and most other Governments today seem to have erred/be erring in taxing income, rather than going into the 'ethical/moral side' of "how" so much income has been earned. This is because, Governments too need their share, in the robberies committed by Capitalists. This can be called 'rowdy mamUl' in my mother tongue Telugu. |
Yet re-assuring as the manifesto sounded, it sits ill with Corbyn’s rhetoric. At a fringe event at Labour’s conference this year, he said: `The very richest in our society have had tax breaks, giveaways, and tax havens. I tell you what, they’re on borrowed time.’ | If Mr. Corby is really serious about Socialism, he should stress more on Removal of Private Properties and Private Incomes, with a guarantee of food, clothing, shelter, old age security, health and education, and some comforts which will be made available to every citizen. |
It is the threat of a wealth tax that is scaring wealthy individuals. It is a theme to which shadow chancellor John McDonnell has returned several times. | We cannot extinguish a massive by drawing water from sea with small buckets. |
In 2012 he gave his endorsement to a proposal by University of Glasgow academic Greg Philo (sometimes mistakenly called an `economist’ but actually a professor in sociology) to subject wealthy individuals to a one-off wealth tax of 20 per cent in the hope of using it to pay off the government’s debts. | Not a solution. It will fail like 2016 demonetisation in India. |
`The wealthiest 10 per cent own £4,000 billion,’ said McDonnell. `If you took 20 per cent of that you would then have £800 billion and we could tackle our deficit — we could tackle our debt — four-fifths of our debt would then be wiped out. | Not a solution. |
So we’re saying just collect the money and make those who created the crisis pay for the crisis and that way you overcome it.’ | It is not the way. |
The idea that wealthy individuals are as a group responsible for the 2008/09 crisis is absurd — what role, he might like to explain, did the Rolling Stones play in the crash? — as is the suggestion that such a tax would pay off the government’s debts: | All Wealthy individuals may not be responsible for the 2008-09 crisis. While it is true, that Enormous Wealth can be accumulated only through foul means, there are different methods and tools even among the foul means. In their degree of venom, harm, intensity and speed, they vary. |
How McDonnell would manage to capture his £800 billion when, of course, highly mobile wealthy individuals have the option of fleeing the country. | Fleeing, leaving their wealth can be welcomed. But fleeing WITH wealth is to be prevented at all costs. During Lenins and Mao's time, these Prevention Methods might have led to substantial bloodshed and misery to the Resisters. |
There is little appetite around the world for international socialist revolution, the only thing which could stop capital flight in its tracks. | Little Appetite only because people have not yet tasted the fruits of True Total Socialism. What people have tasted in Soviet and Chinese Revolutions were only hasty violent massacres in (sorts of) Civil Wars. |
On the contrary, many governments are going in the opposite direction and making every effort to attract wealthy residents. | Here are there are fallacious Great expectations, that they will create Employment, Wealth, and pay more taxes. It is an illusion. |
Donald Trump’s tax cuts have set out a big welcome mat for the world’s rich (if not so much for those of liberal opinion). | America is the World's Greatest Debtor. Most of the World's countries place their surplus forex reserves with United States. But US does not seem to be satisfied with these deposits of Wealth accumulated and undrawn, will not be drawn except in peculiar circumstances, made by the World's Rich countries, and their Central Banks. |
Israel has introduced a ten-year tax holiday on the global wealth of new residents — they will pay tax only on money they bring into the country. | Israel learnt its ways from USA and West Europe. |
Emmanuel Macron has reversed François Hollande’s war on the rich and offered special inducements to attract wealthy residents. | Politicians and Business Corporates conspire and collude. |
Monaco recently held a presentation in London in an effort to attract wealthy individuals. | Devious are the Ways of Funds Thirsty Nations, and their Corporates. (Includes my motherland India). |
Argentina and Greece, countries from which the wealthy were fleeing in recent times, are now much more settled. | All the Wealthy with substantial Wealth , might have already left. Alternatively, wealth might have got exhausted in those countries. |
Corbyn and McDonnell are unlikely to lose much sleep over a few ultra-high-net-worth individuals packing up and leaving (they might well even consider it a success), and where non-doms are involved there is not a huge loss in tax revenues if they leave. | Right now, we cannot read the minds of Corbyn and McDonnel. Time will tell, whether they are masters or cronies. |
The idea of investment fleeing the country ought to worry them more. Paradoxically, some in the City believe a Corbyn government would initially boost economic growth via an increase in infrastructure investment. | This belief seems to be not based on a sound reasoning. |
The trouble is that a bounce would come at a huge cost. Many of Corbyn’s spending pledges in his 2017 manifesto were based on the assumption that if you double the rate of corporation tax you will double the revenue. | Doubling Rate of Corporate Taxes may only flee them, if they can flee. |
That is demonstrably false — George Osborne proved it in reverse by cutting corporation tax and increasing tax receipts as a result. | Failure of Tax Rate increases to raise Tax Collections may depend on many factors. There is also another fallacious belief that Tax cuts will increase Tax Collections. Failures or Successes may have conflicting tangible reasons. |
If corporation tax were to be jacked up there would be a very rapid fall in revenues as corporations sought to shift profits to lower-tax countries — something which McDonnell would struggle to assuage, in the absence of international socialist revolution. | Leftists have a nearly indomitable task before them, promoting an international peaceful socialist Revolution. |
There could be an exodus of corporate HQs, with McDonnell unable to finance public spending increases through any means other than a sharp upward lift in borrowing, with negative consequences for markets. | External or Internal Borrowings cannot be a long term solution. Control of consumption and cravings for luxurious goods and assets, is to be taken up, irrespective of whether the Government is Capitalist or Socialist. But Capitalist Governments,howsoever, egalitarian, they may profess themselves to be, will not do this. |
`If Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour took power, it would probably look a lot like a hard Brexit,’ says Will McIntosh-Whyte, who manages funds for Rathbones. | Not a reasoned apprehension. |
`Domestic stocks would get hit hard and sterling would fall. | Domestic stocks will get hit for anything under the sky. Our Stock Exchanges are Gambling Dens. |
Mr Corbyn fundamentally disagrees with many economic and legal conventions that have been sacrosanct for a generation or more. | He must. He has a long way to go. Everyday he must spend some hours on clarifying goals, means, methods, modifications, and above all influence the thinking of people, and to a some extent without being influenced by people, at any cost not sacrificing basic tenets of Socialism. Probably, he will rise to the occasion. |
The uncertainty he brings is highly likely to unsettle businesses and investors, leading to capital flight and a rise in gilt yields.’ | Seem to be exaggerated fears. |
We would be back, in other words, in traditional Labour territory, with small–duration economic boom snuffed out via inflation and budgetary crisis. | There can be steady growth of prosperity (and some times deterioration and poverty owing to external controllable and uncontrollable circumstances). |
For the moment, all eyes are on Westminster — on Brexit, the mechanics of Commons majorities and the meaning of obscure passages in EU withdrawal documents. | Not signing is also not easy. Getting better terms is also not easy. Germany, France, can be as intelligent as Britain. |
But behind the scenes serious preparations are going on for what could turn out to be a far bigger drama: Corbyn and McDonnell in power. | I hope that it will not be drama. I hope that Corbyn and McDonnell will make a sincere and dedicated attempt, if they get a chance. |
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